The Internationals Guide to the European Parliament Elections - part II
Happy Voting Day!
Welcome to the second special edition dedicated to the European Parliament elections. Today we are going to focus on what happens after the voting sections close.
Election Night Parties
Well, first, you should experience the election night parties, or “valgfest.” They usually start around 8pm and end when the final results are announced early in the morning. The events are usually organized by the political parties. Just Google: valgfest + your city name and some results should pop up. Here are some examples:
Copenhagen Distillery, Moderaterne
Copenhagen Maskinhallen, Alternativet
Copenhagen Villa Kultur, GRO Selv
If you don’t feel like networking, you can also watch the results online here.
European Parliament groups
To understand the results, it’s important to know the connection between national parties and European Parliament groups.
EPP (European People’s Party) center-right group. Two Danish parties belong here: Konservative and Liberal Alliance. It has had the largest group of MEPs since 1999. The biggest national parties in this group are CDU - Germany; OVP - Austria; Forza Italia; PO - Poland; PNL - România; and Partido Popular - Spain. Expected mandates: 181
S&D (Socialists and Democrats) center-left group. One Danish party belongs here: Socialdemokratiet. Largest group of MEPs until 1999; second-largest since then. Biggest national parties in this group: SPD - Germany; Partito Democratico - Italy; PS - Portugal; PSOE - Spain. Expected mandates: 135
Renew Europe liberal group. Three Danish parties belong here: Radikale Venstre, Moderaterne, Venstre. Founded in 2019 after the previous liberal group ALDE merged with Macron’s En Marche. Expected mandates: 82
ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) national-conservative group. One Danish party belongs here: Denmarksdemokraterne. Split from EPP in 2009. Ideologically, the group is broadly eurosceptic, anti-federalist and right-wing, with center-right and far-right factions. The main objective of the ECR is to oppose unchecked European integration, enlargement and potential evolution of the European Union (EU) into a federal European superstate. Largest parties: PiS - Poland; Fratelli D’Italia (led by Giorgia Meloni). Expected mandates: 80
ID (Identity and Democracy) right-wing group. One Danish party belongs here: DF. Created in 2019. Largest parties: Lega - Italy; National Rally Le Pen - France. Previously, AfD - Germany was also a member here. Expected mandates: 66
Greens / European Free Alliance center-left group.Two Danish parties belong here: SF and Alternativet. Created in 1999. Largest parties: Greens from Germany and France). Expected mandates: 54
Left left-wing group.One Danish party belongs here: Enhedslisten. Largest parties: Podemos - Spain; Die Linke - Germany. Expected mandates: 43
Who will govern the Parliament?
EPP and S&D have always governed together as a center coalition, as neither group could muster a majority alone. After the last elections in 2019, Renew Europe was also included in the coalition.
What should you watch for on election night? The number of mandates obtained by ECR, ID, and non-aligned parties (parties not aligned with an European group). If EPP and S&D cannot govern with Renew Europe and the Greens, they will look towards ECR, ID, and the non-aligned, which means we may have a more right-wing Parliament in the next five years.
What would that mean? A further-right Parliament would push for more military and defense spending at the expense of investments in the green transition, youth and education. There will be little appetite to accept new EU candidates, with a renewed focus on building an eastern border wall, securing the Western Balkans border, and increasing surveillance of the Mediterranean Sea, effectively building “Fortress Europe.”
What are the chances of getting a right-wing ruling coalition in Parliament? Quite unlikely. The right-wing is divided along multiple lines. Some of them are pro-Europeans, while others are against it and want to exit. Some are pro-Russian, while others want to invest more in the military, defense and support for Ukraine. It will be very difficult for the right-wing to put together a coalition.
The European Parliament elections around Europe
France: A victory of the right-wing National Rally is expected (fueled by the incredible success of the 28-year old politician Jordan Bardella), followed by the Social Democrats (revived by Raphaël Glucksmann) and Renaissance (Macron’s party) in third place.
Belgium: If the far-right party Vlaams Belang comes first (as the polls show), it could spell the end of Belgium as we know it, as the party wants independence for Flanders.
Poland: Another close battle between the pro-Europeans (Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition) and the Eurosceptics at PiS. Russia and national security are the most important issues.
Slovakia: After the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico, all campaigning came to a halt. The prime minister’s pro-Russian party is first in the polls, in a wave of sympathy.
Austria: The far-right pro-Russian party FPO is first in the polls.
Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-rightFratelli D’Italia party comes first in the polls, far ahead of Matteo Salvini’s right-wing populist Lega party, which won the previous EP elections in Italy.
Germany: The centrist government parties (social-democrat, liberal and greens) are having a hard time, being punished for their military support towards Ukraine. The conservatives and the far-right AfD are bound to get impressive results.
Hungary: There is a new leader rising up, and his name is Peter Magyar. His party, TISZA, is challenging the hegemony of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.
Spain: The conservatives from the center-right PP are expected to take over all the mandates from the liberal Ciudadanos. The far-right VOX is also expected to obtain a strong result.
Netherlands: A very divided country tired of elections. The most votes will go to the far-right PVV and the pro-European Greens.
Bulgaria: One man has come to dominate the EU election in Bulgaria: tycoon and party leader Delyan Peevski, who has been sanctioned by the U.S. and the U.K. for corruption, bribery, and embezzlement.
Croatia: The ruling Croatian Democratic Union could be punished by voters who feel it has failed to reign in what is now one of the highest inflation rates in Europe.
Cyprus: Immigration is top of mind for voters — that is, for those who bother to show up. Less than a third are expected to vote.
Czech Republic: Although migration to the country actually declined last year, far-right populist groups such as Freedom and Direct Democracy have succeeded in making the topic a major issue in this election.
Estonia: Former Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu’s conservative Fatherland Party has been leading the polls for the past six months by opposing green measures.
Finland: The threat posed by Russia is a domestic concern.
Greece: The cost-of-living crisis is top of mind for the voters, whose spending power is now the second lowest in the EU.
Ireland: With the country in the midst of a dramatic housing crisis, the vote is set to be a referendum on Taoiseach Simon Harris.
Latvia: Russia isn’t a major topic ahead of the EU vote — but the country’s Russian-speaking minority sure is.
Lithuania: The center-left Social Democratic Party is expected to score nearly twice as many votes as its ruling center-right rivals.
Portugal: The far-right Chega party is set to come in third place, securing up to four seats in the European Parliament.
România: Local elections are being held on the same day as the EU vote, which has led Brussels-related issues to fall to the wayside as voters focus on topics like the housing crisis and municipal corruption.
What happens after the elections?
In the initial weeks following the election, national party members create coalitions with like-minded counterparts from across the EU, known as political groups. These groups play a crucial role in shaping the power dynamics of the EU.
As they vie for top positions, the 27 EU heads of state and government must first agree on the new presidents of the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament, as well as the EU's next foreign policy chief. EU leaders will convene over dinner for an informal summit in Brussels on June 17, with the first formal European Council meeting set for June 27-28.
The newly elected members of the European Parliament will have to wait until July 16 for their first plenary session, where they will elect their president and begin assigning key roles, such as vice presidencies and committee chairmanships.
After the president of the European Commission (de facto the most important president in the European Union, like a prime minister) is selected by the European Council and approved by the European Parliament, a dialogue will start with the member states to select the commissionaires (the ministers in the European government), who also have to be approved by the European Parliament.
What are the predictions for Denmark?
Socialdemokratiet (Social Democrats) and SF (Socialists) are fighting over the first place. Both parties are bound to get three mandates.
Number two on the Social Democrat list, Niels Fuglsang, recently proposed a minimum energy class (E) for homes from 2035, creating a storm in his own party. There are 400,000 homes in classes F and G, and it would cost 300,000 DKK on average to raise their energy class. His party rejects the proposal.
The Social Democrats’ friendship with the Socialists is under pressure due to their continuous attacks on the Socialists’ openness to accepting more refugees.
Venstre (Liberals) and the Liberal Alliance (Liberal Conservatives) are fighting for third place. Both parties are bound to get two mandates.
In the last TV debate, the Liberal Alliance said the EU should stop wasting time on symbol politics, like banning plastic straws and changing plastic lids, while Venstre said some parties are wasting time talking about plastic straws, while the war rages in Ukraine.
In the same debate, the Liberal Alliance also had a fight with DanmarksDemokraterne (nationalist populists) over a CO2 tax on agriculture at the European level. The Liberal Alliance wants one, while DD is completely against one.
For the other seven parties, it’s a question of whether they get one mandate or not. According to the latest polls, five are likely to get one (Konservative, Moderaterne, DF, DD and Enhedslisten) and two would get none (Radikale Venstre and Alternativet). For Radikale Venstre, it would mean a lost race for the pro-European vote against Moderaterne.
Who are the most well-known lead candidates?
Morten Løkkegaard (Venstre) 74%, Stine Bosse (Moderaterne) 68%, Henrik Dahl (Liberal Alliance) 63%, Christel Schaldemose (Socialdemokratiet) 59%, and Anders Vistisen (DF) 52%
Most-discussed issues on the campaign trail in Denmark
The most discussed issue by far has been related to the fight against climate change. 53% of people in Denmark want a reduction of CO2 emissions by a minimum of 90% by 2040, while 26% want the reduction to be a bit smaller. Nine parties are in favor of the 90% target, while two parties are against (DD and DF).
On the theme of sustainability, images from the “clothes cemeteries” in the Chilean desert horrified voters and prompted candidates to come up with proposals. In Europe, we each buy 15 kilos of textiles every year on average. Together we discard four million tons of clothes and shoes every year. Textile waste is both expensive to handle and difficult to recycle. Among the proposals, there is an environmental tax on textile producers, which is supported by Enhedslisten and Moderaterne.
The other issue that is a priority for Danish voters is the war in Ukraine and the security situation. On this topic, there is not much disagreement between the parties, as they all agree that help needs to be given to Ukraine (with one or two exceptions, where they consider we need to be more moderate in our support). All parties concur that we need to produce more military equipment in Europe and that there needs to be coordination between the different militaries.
Speaking of the security situation, it was revealed that a Russian-backed organization called Pravfond sponsored political campaigns in Denmark and the European Union. We are talking about more than 18 million DKK being spent by Russia on this. Also, an EP candidate from Venstre, Alexandra Sasha, resigned from politics after it was revealed that she was a board member in a pro-Putin youth organization called European Russian Forum.
For seven of the 11 parties, Putin is a bigger threat than climate change.
Migration has also been a source of discord between the candidates. DF would not like even one migrant to Denmark, while Alternativet says we should open our doors to migrants. The Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, proposed that the European Union should finance a fence at the border with the Western Balkans countries to stop illegal migration.
Want to know more?
Meet the only non-Danish citizen candidate from Denmark here.
Follow our Instagram page to learn more about the European Parliament, the parties running for elections and the main topics of discussion. Also, check it out today, to see live footage from voting sections around Denmark.
Must-read article in English: The European Parliament has really changed your life. Here’s how.
We end the special edition with a link to the most funny election posters. Enjoy! And see you next weekend when we’re back to the normal format.
Thank you for reading and sharing Last Week in Denmark!